That’s impressive, but Friedland contends the numbers will go a lot higher: he thinks Google will reach “at least 90%” market share over the next decade.
He offers six reasons for that view:
R&D budget will remain “substantially higher” than rivals. Sustainable advantage in providing more relevant results, “driven in part by a virtuous cycle where more searches drive more keyword advertising.” Ability to deliver faster results due to higher cap ex spending than Microsoft’s (MSFT) Online Services unit and Yahoo (YHOO) combined. Highly profitable core business allows Google to provide a superior user experience on many of its products by not displaying ads. Portfolio of free Web-based apps, integrated with search, should drive volume and lessen Microsoft’s ability to leverage its dominant position on the desktop. Greater depth and breadth of indexed offline content is difficult and costly to duplicate.
